Open most email dashboards and the revenue number looks great. The catch is how it's counted. The common rule is last touch: if someone received an email in the days before they ordered, that email gets the sale. Received, not opened, not clicked.
That rule credits a lot of sales email didn't make. A customer who is already checking out creates an account, gets a welcome email six minutes later, places the order, and the welcome email "made" that sale.
Two numbers, not one
We split every order into two buckets. Confirmed means the email demonstrably drove it: the buyer clicked a link in that email and bought, or used a discount code that only existed in that email. Likely means the buyer received or opened an email before ordering, with no click and no code. It might have helped. It might not have.
Confirmed is the number to plan around. Likely is useful context, labeled as what it is: a reasonable guess.
Discount codes are evidence
A code that only appears in one email is one of the best signals you have. If someone types it at checkout, they got it from that email, directly or from someone who did. Codes do travel, forwarded to a friend or posted on a coupon site, so a code points at the email that sourced the sale rather than proving this person read it. That trade is worth making, because the alternative is ignoring real sales.
- Give each email its own code where you can, so a code points at one email.
- If one code runs in two emails, credit the one most recently sent to that buyer.
- Keep affiliate and influencer codes out of email, so their sales stay theirs.
Don't credit a sale already in progress
An unopened email that lands an hour before a purchase almost never caused it. We only give credit to an email that was delivered but never opened or clicked if it arrived at least a day before the order. Opens and clicks still count at any point in the window.
Why it matters
Inflated attribution makes every email look like it works, so nothing gets fixed. Honest numbers show which flows earn and which just ride along. For a brand that can't lean on paid ads, knowing which emails actually sell is most of the job.